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Somerset in Africa
Discussion started by mama mia , 27 February, 2014 14:58
Somerset in Africa
mama mia 27 February, 2014 14:58
I see from the Dave Nosworthy report that the Somerset bowlers had a deloading day.Please enlighten me........

Re: Somerset in Africa
AGod 27 February, 2014 14:59
A day on the beach perhaps?

Re: Somerset in Africa
Sloop John B 27 February, 2014 15:26
This from Dave Nosworthy in today's Somerset County Gazette:

β€œFor the first time in a number of years we will most probably be going into this season with an almost underdogs type tag – which means that we will have to scrap and fight for everything – which I know the lads will be up for.”

Methinks a little reverse psychology may be at work here! ie: don't go out there just expecting to win - you gotta earn it!

Re: Somerset in Africa
AGod 27 February, 2014 15:42
Apart from Trescothick's decline then not a whole lot has really changed, personnel wise (at least not from a subtraction stand-point), compared to, say, the 2012 season, so I'm not really sure that we should be considered "underdogs", in any meaningful sense of the term.

But then I suppose the volume of pre-injury but post England runs that we got from Trescothick was so huge that that is why Nosworthy thinks that and/or is saying it.

Re: Somerset in Africa
Frome Exile 27 February, 2014 15:47
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE can we leave it alone with the discussion of Trescothick's "decline" until he's at least had one or two chances to prove that 2013 was a blip?

Re: Somerset in Africa
SheptonPaul 27 February, 2014 16:05
Surely he'll progress to the statistical norm?

winking smiley

Re: Somerset in Africa
North Berwick John 27 February, 2014 16:17
Quote:
mama mia
I see from the Dave Nosworthy report that the Somerset bowlers had a deloading day.Please enlighten me........
Something they ate?

Re: Somerset in Africa
Mike TA1 27 February, 2014 16:28
What the Heck is a Deload?



Plain and simple, a deload is a short planned period of recovery. You take your training slightly lighter, maybe workout a little less, and generally just ease things back. A typical deload will last a week.
[breakingmuscle.com]

Re: Somerset in Africa
AGod 27 February, 2014 16:30
I'm sure he would progress towards the statistical norm, SP, if the conditions under which he was operating were the similar to those in which he has produced said norm.

So, we must hope that his latest medical procedure has managed to make his (physical) well-being rather more like it was before he did his ankle in.

Re: Somerset in Africa
Frome Exile 27 February, 2014 16:30
Thanks, Mike.
I guess that type of day makes sense after a long haul flight.

Re: Somerset in Africa
Loyal of Lhasa. 27 February, 2014 16:52
I thought deloading was what our esteemed moderator did to posts for which he does not greatly care...



LoL

Sixty-six Seasons a Somerset Supporter

Re: Somerset in Africa
Mike TA1 27 February, 2014 17:02
I must admit FE I didn't have a clue, Thank God for the internet.

Re: Somerset in Africa
Bagpuss 27 February, 2014 17:39
I'm seeing Mike in a whole new light since I discovered he is au fait with a website called breakingmuscle.com

Re: Somerset in Africa
Nailsea_Fizz 27 February, 2014 19:00
Quote:
AGod
Apart from Trescothick's decline then not a whole lot has really changed, personnel wise (at least not from a subtraction stand-point), compared to, say, the 2012 season, so I'm not really sure that we should be considered "underdogs", in any meaningful sense of the term.
But then I suppose the volume of pre-injury but post England runs that we got from Trescothick was so huge that that is why Nosworthy thinks that and/or is saying it.

Aleady? and wih the season not even started, sigh

Re: Somerset in Africa
AGod 27 February, 2014 19:26
Reality is that Marcus's average was well down on his (Herculean) efforts of 2008-2011 in BOTH 2012 and 2013.

That is, by definition, a clear decline in output whether you like it or not, Nailsea Fizz (and FE for that matter)

His averages were:

2008: 46.59

2009: 75.70

2010: 58.20

2011: 79.66

2012: 38.92

2013: 27.72

So...we can hope that 2013 was a 'blip' in terms of hoping that he'll average closer to 40 than 27 in 2014.. But as far as the production that we used to get from MT is concerned?

We'd be looking at a 'blip,' of 2 seasons for him to recover from if he was going to magically get back to his previous very heavy production.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 27/02/2014 19:41 by AGod.

Re: Somerset in Africa
Bobstan 27 February, 2014 19:59
I think the point is that we are all aware of Marcus's relative performance and that it really doesn't need reiterating, especially with a new season coming up before too long.

You have, of course a perfect right to keep reminding us of the statistics, AG. Just don't expect everyone to be grateful to you. Many folk at this time will consider it to be inappropriate and perhaps even a mite tedious.

Re: Somerset in Africa
AGod 27 February, 2014 20:10
It seems that some are either not aware or, perhaps, in denial based on one or two posts on this thread, to which I responded.

Re: Somerset in Africa
Loyal of Lhasa. 27 February, 2014 20:23
Well said, Bobstan. We're neither ignorant nor in denial, but just looking forward to another glorious season with the same old optimism that has sustained us for decades.

And if that optimism can be passed on to the players, I suggest it will do more good than harm.



LoL

Sixty-six Seasons a Somerset Supporter

Re: Somerset in Africa
Frome Exile 27 February, 2014 21:20
Hear! Hear!

I do get so damned tired of being told, in sny aspect of (my) life, that because I hope for a better future, I am in denial about either the present, or the past.

Re: Somerset in Africa
AGod 27 February, 2014 21:43
You're not in denial because of 'hoping for better.'

But in terms of the 'decline' that I was talking about there is an element of denial in implying that 2013 was the only evidence of 'decline,' as opposed to simply the most marked evidence of it.

And, no I'm not saying there's (or would be) anything much wrong with an average of just below 40 a la 2012 but that doesn't mean that it did not, nevertheless, represent a decline compared to previous production.

And that was my original point - that I'm not really sure that there are legitimate grounds for DN to cast us as highly unfancied underdogs for the 2014 season and that, if that IS the reality (for example if the bookies have us as the ninth favourite in a nine horse race) then I can only really think that Tres's travails would be the reason why.

Re: Somerset in Africa
Frome Exile 27 February, 2014 22:06
My last word on this subject is that I refuse to discuss an ongoing process of "decline" in the performance of our county's greatest ever player in the build-up to what may yet be both his, and the county's greatest ever season.
Those of you who wish to suck the last drops of poison ftom the bottom of your doom-laden glassses? Knock yourselves out - but leave me out of it.

Re: Somerset in Africa
AGod 27 February, 2014 22:13
Nope, nothing to do with 'doom.'

As I said, I do not really see why we should be considered marked underdogs for this coming season.

It was a fine speech though, FE.

Re: Somerset in Africa
Frome Exile 27 February, 2014 22:36
Almost as fine as one of your statistical lectures.

Re: Somerset in Africa
Bagpuss 28 February, 2014 00:20
When was the last time a county predicted as an 'overdog' (or whatever the opposite of an underdog is) won the CC. Certainly not Durham last year, who were hotly tipped for relegation in April. Nor Warwickshire, the year before, or Lancashire the year before that.

Re: Somerset in Africa
Grockle 28 February, 2014 07:34
Don't MT's stats simply suggest he is moving back towards the average rather than using the word 'declining' (yeah I don't want a pedantic discussion on the true meaning of the word - its the connotations I refer to).

Damn he'll just have to be 'good' this season instead of 'amazing'.

Good job we have others coming through moving the other way - as is the norm in the life of a cricket club.

I'll take Marcus at 'good' and AG at....what's the opposite of empathic?



(Sm72)

Re: Somerset in Africa
AGod 28 February, 2014 07:35
Maybe DN did have a bit of a look at the odds. The marked underdogs with Skybet are Northants, as one would expect.

Somerset are then in a group of three with Sussex and Middx as the next least fancied albeit no team other than Northants is longer than 8/1.

I'm a little surprised that 5 teams are shorter than us.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 28/02/2014 09:45 by AGod.

Re: Somerset in Africa
Grockle 28 February, 2014 08:03
Well we might as well go with the 'underdog' label. We were no sodding good when we were 'favourites'.



(Sm72)

Re: Somerset in Africa
AGod 28 February, 2014 09:52
I cannot personally see a logical reason why Lancs should be a shorter price than any of us, Middx or Sussex.

And it's probably a little early for the market to have been "moved" to any significant extent by a bunch of optimistic Lancastrians piling in on their County (so the current prices probably mainly reflect the opening lines set by the bookie).

Grockle - I think we managed a couple of seconds when we were favourites so 'no good', may be at least a little harsh!

Personally, I see the situation much as I did before the start of last season....... no significant gap in quality amongst the various contenders (with the possible exception, this time, of Northants), all of the counties look somewhat suspect in terms of having any proven depth and the avoidance of injuries/getting on a roll early on will go a long way to shaping the outcome. Of course, the identity of those man called up to plug the gaps in various England sides may also have a big part to play.. for example if James Taylor ends up getting a run in the Test team, then that will hit Notts.

Re: Somerset in Africa
chunkyinargyll 28 February, 2014 10:34
Now I don't go in for betting- but is it a cricket expert at Ladbrokes, or whoever, deciding he thinks (with his experience) that Lancashire are likely to do well- or is it purely driven by how many people bet?

So- If a whole load of Lancashire fans decide to place a bet on their team, (say 3 times as many as Yorkshire fans) does that automatically make Lancashire get less generous odds? (even though, from an impartial assessment, nothing's changed).

Re: Somerset in Africa
AGod 28 February, 2014 11:31
The market moves if enough people put enough money on a given "runner," as the bookmaker wants to limit its liability in the event of a well-fancied runner winning.

But the bookmaker first has to set an opening price and I suspect that it's a little early for much significant money to have been placed on the outcome at this juncture. In other words, I doubt that Lancs have been backed in to that price.

Looking at the same market in, say, six weeks' time, would give an idea of whether there's much money going into the market and whether a disproportionate amount of it is going behind one "runner" i.e. would have moved the market on a given team.

I should have said it was Skybet rather than Ladbrokes (those prices were)

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