Recent history says that it's far from over


By Nathan Jackson
February 5 2007

56 points would normally see the Imps in the Top 3 at this stage, but we instead find ourselves limping in 5th place. In this report, we analyse exactly what being 5th place at this stage of the season means, and compare where exactly we would be if we'd had 56 points in recent years.

In recent years, League Two hasn’t exactly housed many decent teams, and handful of half decent teams there were, have near enough all departed (with the exception of City of course). In recent years, this division has seen several current Championship sides depart include Cardiff, Plymouth, Luton, Hull, and a side that fluked a certain playoff final back in 2005. Not to forget several sides that left League 2 and are now on the verge of the Championship, namely Scunthorpe, Yeovil, and Swansea.

In return, this division got a load of rubbish in and as time went by, Division 3/League 2 became weaker and weaker, and the fact that a an mediocre side like Carlisle can win the League by a fair old gap says it all. The teams that made this division exciting such as Bournemouth, Huddersfield, the aforementioned Yeovil, and even to an extent Scunthorpe, have been replaced by teams that hardly wet the appetite. Chester City, Accrington Stanley, and Boston coming up from the conference, where as some of the teams coming down have again failed to set the division alight.

Then this summer, 4 teams were relegated that all had the potential to very well in this division, and that caused me to predict all 4 of them to finish within the Top 7 places in this division. It has since proved that those 4 teams are currently the 4 best teams in this division, which makes several aspects of this season quite irritating. The most irritating of course being that 56 points would be enough to top the League One table (PICTURED RIGHT - at time of writing - Sunday 4th February). Also, in the recent past, 56 points would usually have been enough to see City currently sitting in the automatic promotion places.

6 years ago, 56 points at this stage of the season would have seen the Imps sit in second, 4 points ahead of Cardiff who had 52. That season Rochdale sat in 5th position with 48 points after the first game in February, they didn't end up in the playoff places. Those were eventually filled by Leyton Orient, Hull, Hartlepool and Blackpool. The Tangerines became the first, and to this day the only, side to win the 4th tier playoffs after finishing in 7th position. Brighton were promoted as Champions, Cardiff and Chesterfield were also promoted, despite the latter having 9 points deducted for irregularities.

In the 2001/2 season, 56 points would see the Imps proudly sat in 3rd place, just ahead of Rochdale whilst being 1 point behind Luton and 11 behind eventual champions Plymouth Argyle. It was Hull City who were 5th at this stages during that season, and just like Rochdale in the season before, they failed to finish in the playoff positions. They were filled by Cheltenham, Rushden, Rochdale, and Rushden & Diamonds. Cheltenham joined Plymouth, Luton and Mansfield in what was then known as Division 2.

The following season would have seen City sit 2nd, 7 points behind Hartlepool. The team in 5th at this stage that year was Wrexham, they again didn't finish in the playoffs but unlike the Rochdale and Hull, they finished the season in 3rd place. Bournemouth eventually won the playoffs despite finishing this weekend outside of the Top 7. City were also out of the Top 7 at this stage, but lost to Bournemouth. The losing semi-finalists, Bury and Scunthorpe, were both in the Top 7 at this stage. Rushden & Diamonds won the League that year after sitting 2nd on this weekend.

 

2003/4 was another worrying example of the 5th placed team at this stage not finishing in the Top 7. This time is was Yeovil Town, who missed out due to Northampton's 3-2 win at Mansfield on the final day to secure their own playoff place. 56 points would have seen City placed in 4th due to an inferior goal difference than Oxford, who failed to finish inside the Top 7 despite losing less games than anyone else at this point (take note Walsall).

In this season, Huddersfield Town won the playoffs after deposing of both City and Mansfield. They joined Doncaster, Hull City and Torquay in what was to become League One in the following season.

56 points in the 2004/5 season would again see the Imps sit 4th on goal difference. This season however offers some optimism though as Southend, who sat 5th at this stage 2 years ago, went on to win the Playoff Final after losing there twice before....an omen perhaps?

The top 3 stayed in the order you can see on the right, whereas Macclesfield, Lincoln, and Northampton joined Southend in the playoffs. During the 5 playoff games, just 6 goals were scored in what is widely refered to as the most boring playoff campaign in Football League history.

Finally we get to last season and 56 points would see the Imps as the team at the top of the league. Again however this season would give the Imps some hope. Orient were 5th at this point, but went on to claim the final automatic promotion place on the final day.

Not a single side that were in the playoff positions this time a year ago, went on to compete in the playoffs that were eventually won by Cheltenham Town. Grimsby, City and Wycome took up the other positions.

So, what can we deduct from all of these tables? Well that the finish is never predictable and not a single side that were 5th placed at this stage have finished in that position in the past 6 years. Often that 5th placed team has still been in this divison the following season. With this my optimism is renewed, although we'll have to start to get back into gear if we want to either gain automatic promotion, or at the very least get home advantage in the playoffs.

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