YORKSHIRE WILL FINISH FOURTH

By Richard Watts
February 5 2007

Our resident stato Richard Watts has been wearing out his abacus once again and the results this time are alright. Every conceivable 2007 permutation has been considered. Get down the bookies, book the holiday and tell your mates - after a winter of trouble it's all going to be just fine.

I have been looking into runs and wickets over the last five seasons for each of the finishing positions in the first division.

If you award a point for every 50 runs and a point for every wicket it gives you a result that reflects the average finishing position.

Pos	Runs	Wkts	Pts
1	8122	251	413.44
2	8011	252	412.22
3	7863	248	405.26
4	7768	246	401.36
5	7913	236	394.26
6	7300	238	384.00
7	8016	209	369.32
8	6933	238	376.66
9	7945	194	352.90

Obviously there are exceptions to all statistical analysis. In 2005 Nottinghamshire won the Championship but their 7,233 runs and 262 wickets would only give 406 points using the above scoring system. Over a 5 year period the results are consistent.

While looking into these stats I found that 63% of a sides runs are scored by its top 5 run scorers and 68% of its wickets are taken by it top four wicket takers. A notable exception was Sussex in 2005 when 87% of wickets were taken by its top four bowlers.

So applying the above formulas how could Yorkshire fair in 2007.

Top 5 run scorers:

Sayers – 900 runs

White – 1100 runs

Elliott/Younus Khan – 1000 runs

Rudolph – 1200 runs

Gale – 900 runs

If those runs are 63% of the team total that gives total runs scored of 8037.

Top 4 wicket takers

Gillespie – 40 wickets

Kruis – 40 wickets

Bresnan – 45 wickets