Northampton Saints
European Challenge Cup - The Plot Thickens
By Oddshaped Balls
January 20 2009
There has been a lot of speculation about who will finish where in the European Challenge Cup groups and what that will mean for the knock-out stages. I have had a look at the groups. I have looked at some of the critical, final-round fixtures. Taking the favourites in each of these key games, I have made my own draw for the quarter finals
There are some interesting sub-plots going on in other groups. Overmach Parma (away to Brive, third highest try-scorers, ranked fourth) sits second in the pool but will probably lose that spot to Newcastle Falcons (home to El Salvador, Cetransa - lowest ranked team in the competition). Parma won't qualify despite having 16 competition points.
Bourgoin look as though they will finish second in Pool 3. Their home fixture with Bucharest Oaks ought to see it take 5 points. That would overtake Padua which visits Worcester and be unlikely to improve on the mark of 13 competition points. Bourgoin will finish on 14 or 15 points, close to 15 tries and a positive points difference around 30.
That makes them vulnerable to the runner-up in Pool 5. Viadana needs only to beat Bayonne to finish on 16 points
Dax, cut adrift at the bottom of Pool 1 is unlikely to prevent Connacht from adding 5 points to its total. It should be enough to qualify in seventh place. Something extraordinary would have to happen to allow Connacht past Newcastle Falcons.
What does that mean for the seeding and draw? Who will Saints play?
The following is my own opinion, my own prediction but you will see that extraordinary things will have to happen for Saints to play Brive or avoid Saracens should they get to the semi-final.
Quarter-final
1 London Irish
(Match A)
8 Viadana
4 Brive
(Match D)
5 Worcester
2 Northampton
(Match B)
7 Connacht
3 Saracens
(Match C)
6 Newcastle
If we allow that home teams will win - not necessarily true but a reasonable and consistent assumption - the rest of the competition unfolds as follows.
Semi-final Final
A London Irish
London Irish
D Brive
B Northampton
Northampton
C Saracens
arw
20.01.2009
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Discussion started by ComeOnYouSaints.com , 20/01/2009 12:53
ComeOnYouSaints.com
20/01/2009 12:53
20/01/2009 12:53
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Isn't there a (very outside) chance that we could get Brizzle?
That'd be nice
That'd be nice
Quote:
"Something extraordinary would have to happen to allow Connacht past Newcastle Falcons"
Funny you should say that ...
Newcastle would indeed appear to be in pole position for 6th seed as they have a 4 try advantage over Connacht.
However, on the Falcons site it has occurred to them that finishing as 7th seed and thus getting into QF2 (2v7) at our place will provide an easier path to the final than finishing as 6th seed and getting into QF3 (3v6) at Sarries.
That's not so much to do with them thinking that we will be an easier proposition than Sarries. More to do with the fact that the winner of 2v7 gets a home SF whereas the winner of 3v6 will have an away SF - probably at Irish.
In order for them to slot into 7th rather than 6th though they would probably have to avoid a bonus point against El Salvador. This might be easier said than done though given that El Salvador have conceded 45 tries in 5 games !!
Stranger things have happened though.
And bear in mind that they play on Sunday when they will already know all the relevant results
"Something extraordinary would have to happen to allow Connacht past Newcastle Falcons"
Funny you should say that ...
Newcastle would indeed appear to be in pole position for 6th seed as they have a 4 try advantage over Connacht.
However, on the Falcons site it has occurred to them that finishing as 7th seed and thus getting into QF2 (2v7) at our place will provide an easier path to the final than finishing as 6th seed and getting into QF3 (3v6) at Sarries.
That's not so much to do with them thinking that we will be an easier proposition than Sarries. More to do with the fact that the winner of 2v7 gets a home SF whereas the winner of 3v6 will have an away SF - probably at Irish.
In order for them to slot into 7th rather than 6th though they would probably have to avoid a bonus point against El Salvador. This might be easier said than done though given that El Salvador have conceded 45 tries in 5 games !!
Stranger things have happened though.
And bear in mind that they play on Sunday when they will already know all the relevant results
If you get that lot right, OSB - we will have to rename you Crystal Balls...
welcome back to the forum MacSaint!!!
some interesting ideas being put forward.
once you get to the quarters its a toss of a coin on alot of the game in my opinion, even our own were we to face Connacht. No mugs by any stretch....
some interesting ideas being put forward.
once you get to the quarters its a toss of a coin on alot of the game in my opinion, even our own were we to face Connacht. No mugs by any stretch....
Connacht certainly threw in the towel early on for their last game at the Madjet; before they even got there.
It's a lottery I tell'ee
It's a lottery I tell'ee
El Salvador: P 5 W 0 D 0 L 5 TF 3 TAg 45 TDiff -42 PtF 32 PtAg 290 PtDiff -258 TB 0 LB 0 Pts 0
El Salvador's best performance against Newcastle to date is to concede only 63 points.
If Falcons don't do enough to go through above Connacht, they won't be going anywhere.
[lowrence.com]
El Salvador's best performance against Newcastle to date is to concede only 63 points.
If Falcons don't do enough to go through above Connacht, they won't be going anywhere.
[lowrence.com]
It doesn't matter where we finish because none of the teams are any good, according to Peter Bills - HERE.
And he doesn't even mention Northampton...
And he doesn't even mention Northampton...
We played Thursday so not on the weekend and therefore couldn't be mentioned. Sad h didnn't write an article about the Premierships record of 100% for midweek wins last week.
If he can't read the results, he probably can't remember who's in the Guinness Premiership.
[lowrence.com]
[lowrence.com]
That is the biggest pile of plop I've read in a long time.
It serves as a timely reminder why I don't bother with "newspapers"
It serves as a timely reminder why I don't bother with "newspapers"
Never really read much of what Bills writes but he does have a point. The article would have been better if he had come up with an analysis of the reasons, other than results, for the difficulties the GP (and the French) clubs have had in the HCup. Mind you, if results go their way next weekend, the GP could still have 4 clubs in the QF.
The media, and the supporters, do over-egg the quality of the GP. For example, in GP terms the Saints have a very good back row in Best, Wilson and Gray with Easter as back up, but compare that with Molitika, Powell and Williams plus Rush at the Blues, or the Munster boys, and there is a significant gap before the Saints can look at themselves as potential pool winners in the HCup. Similarly with the 9, 10, 12 and 13 combination.
My view has always been that England can not support 12 GP clubs (nor France 14) without resorting to over use of non-England qualified players. For the last few years at U18 and U20, England have done well. Obviously they need to do well as they have to feed three times the number of level 1 teams compared to the Irish and Welsh say.
Historically, Gloucester were a v diff team to beat because they had a hard core of local forwards who got on with it, now they have a multi-cultural pack who just don't have that extra zip when it matters. Ditto Leicester comparing the ABC, Johnson etc. days with now. There is no doubt in my mind that Cardiff having that extra advantage of 19 out of the 22 being local Welsh guys got them over the finishing line last week end.
dej
The media, and the supporters, do over-egg the quality of the GP. For example, in GP terms the Saints have a very good back row in Best, Wilson and Gray with Easter as back up, but compare that with Molitika, Powell and Williams plus Rush at the Blues, or the Munster boys, and there is a significant gap before the Saints can look at themselves as potential pool winners in the HCup. Similarly with the 9, 10, 12 and 13 combination.
My view has always been that England can not support 12 GP clubs (nor France 14) without resorting to over use of non-England qualified players. For the last few years at U18 and U20, England have done well. Obviously they need to do well as they have to feed three times the number of level 1 teams compared to the Irish and Welsh say.
Historically, Gloucester were a v diff team to beat because they had a hard core of local forwards who got on with it, now they have a multi-cultural pack who just don't have that extra zip when it matters. Ditto Leicester comparing the ABC, Johnson etc. days with now. There is no doubt in my mind that Cardiff having that extra advantage of 19 out of the 22 being local Welsh guys got them over the finishing line last week end.
dej
Funny isn't it that GP and French teams keep winning the pinnacle of European rugby? I wonder why that is? Can't be they play in stronger competitive leagues can it? And before you mention Munster, I think they are the exception that proves the rule. Put out their strongest side for the HC etc etc etc.
I have always thought it a pointless exercise to make comparisons when there are so many differences to the respective set ups. As the Welsh and Irish set ups are there mainly to provide a strong national team you could argue that they can never be "better" until they win a world cup or maybe get to a final? With all Englands club v country issues they have won the thing and got to the final a couple of times, so they must produce one or two players who are capable of playing International standard rugby.
As with comparing the Munster team to the Saints; they are an established regional side with half the national team in them whereas Saints have just come up from ND1. I still think we could give them a game though.
And regards the foreign player fetish, even the mighty Munster have considered it necessary to bring in "outsiders" to make them strong enough to compete effectively in the Heineken despite getting free entry every year into the competition.
Saint til I die
As with comparing the Munster team to the Saints; they are an established regional side with half the national team in them whereas Saints have just come up from ND1. I still think we could give them a game though.
And regards the foreign player fetish, even the mighty Munster have considered it necessary to bring in "outsiders" to make them strong enough to compete effectively in the Heineken despite getting free entry every year into the competition.
Saint til I die
21/01/2009 11:07
I think our EDF game against Cardiff will give us a good idea as to where we are as a team.
I have been very impressed with the Blues this season and I envisage a very tough game.
You can only ever beat what is in front of you so direct comparisons like these (and at this stage of a competition) are the best indicator of ones progress.
I have been very impressed with the Blues this season and I envisage a very tough game.
You can only ever beat what is in front of you so direct comparisons like these (and at this stage of a competition) are the best indicator of ones progress.
Yes, if indeed we do get Connacht in the ECC in addition to the Blues in the EDF, that will give us cup games against the bottom and next-to-bottom teams in the Magners League. Are we better than the Celtic basement?
Its a bit like NZ at international level. we keep hearing they are the best team in the world and indeed they look it winning games that don't 'count' at a canter, but then every four years when push comes to shove they falter. Could the root be their domestic setup? there were plenty of Kiwis calling for Heineken style compo because they though s14, good as it is, doesn't prepare you mentally for do or die games.
21/01/2009 12:16
Blues seem to have been significantly more focused on the HCup and possibly EDF Cup than the Magners League.
I watched a Magners game featuring Cardiff a few weeks ago and it was unrecognisable from their HCup side.
They have some excellent players in key positions incl Powell / Rush at 8, Williams at 7, Jenkins at loosehead, and their backs incl ½P, Alfie and the two big centres are a threat. Their potential top seeding for the HCup ¼ finals is not undeserved.
So far as the ECC is concerned, Connacht cannot be considered a serious threat and we possibly won't get a contest until the semi-final the way the draw is looking.
I watched a Magners game featuring Cardiff a few weeks ago and it was unrecognisable from their HCup side.
They have some excellent players in key positions incl Powell / Rush at 8, Williams at 7, Jenkins at loosehead, and their backs incl ½P, Alfie and the two big centres are a threat. Their potential top seeding for the HCup ¼ finals is not undeserved.
So far as the ECC is concerned, Connacht cannot be considered a serious threat and we possibly won't get a contest until the semi-final the way the draw is looking.
Quote:Big Bird©
Blues seem to have been significantly more focused on the HCup and possibly EDF Cup than the Magners League.
Hmmmm that's a bit dangerous. They could end up getting relegated............oh wait a minute...
That's the point though isn't it Duncan. Teams in the Magner's league do this type of thing. Because there is no relegation they can give their developing players game time in teh league with no fear of the outcome. This is probably teh main reason teh GP is lauded as a better competition. I think it is an entirely different thing to compare the quality of teh league and to compare the quality of the teams. If Cardiff beat us in the EDF it may make them teh better team (on the day) but it will not mean the Magners is a better league or indeed vice versa.
Saint til I die
Saint til I die
The Blues will pick up their Magners performance in the second half of the season even if just to avoid the embarrassment of having to play off for a Heineken spot
[lowrence.com]
[lowrence.com]
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