Prediction competition update; 12/16 rounds

By Ged
August 21 2005

Three quarters of Middlesex’s 2005 County Championship campaign is over. 12 of the 16 matches have been played, which is a good time to take stock. Nine punters are playing for glory (and a small cricket-related prize) and all hope to do better than three computed, benchmark entries.

As we enter the home stretch, Ged maintains that the computerised benchmarks are achieving better predictions than humans.

The following nine punters are playing for glory in the Middlesex 2005 prediction game:

¨      Ged Ladd

¨      Barmy Kev

¨      Janet Davis

¨      Warren Ladd

¨      JC67

¨      David Slater

¨      Patrick Kingsley

¨      Tom Skelton

¨      James Duffy

 

There are also three computed entries, by way of benchmarks:

¨      1st Class Averages (with “norms” for players who don’t have 1st class averages)

¨      Middlesex 2004 averages (with “norms” for players lacking Middlesex 2004 averages)

¨      Poll of Polls (average of the 9 real entries).

 

Ged has observed throughout the season that picking previous averages seemed to be a better guide than the “wisdom” of the competing humans!  However, only real people can win a prize, so there’s plenty to play for even if the computer does best!  If you recall, Ged has promised a small, cricket-related prize.

 

Ged has now recomputed the standings table after ľ of the first class season, i.e. the first 12 of 16 matches.  At the end of the season, only those players with 10 innings and/or 10 wickets will impact the results, as explained in the game rules.  As we enter the home stretch, Ged has used actual “averages” for those players have a reasonable chance of meeting the criteria.  Chad Keegan’s bowling average of 233 for 1 wicket is excluded, for example.

Name

Bat Score

Bowl Score

Total Score

Ranking

1st class average

114

63

177

2

Middlesex 2004

108

47

155

1

Gedd Ladd

140

68

208

7

Barmy Kev

139

63

202

=4

Janet Davis

206

90

293

11

Warren Ladd

151

116

267

10

JC67

138

67

255

6

David Slater

217

91

308

12

Patrick Kingsley

171

70

241

9

Tom Skelton

126

76

202

=4

James Duffy

123

68

191

3

Poll of polls

136

74

210

8

The computer has done far better than all the real people. The Middlesex 2004 average has been far and away the best predictor at the end of each quarter season so far. At the half year stage JC67 was standing in poll position for the prize and had exceeded the 1st Class Average predictor. But this time it is James Duffy making the strongest challenge, followed closely by Tom Skelton and Barmy Kev. Ged himself is not too far behind and still harbours secret hopes of winning his own prize. (Strange, really, because Ged knows what the prize is.)

 

David Slater has now seized the wooden spoon slot from Janet. But there is still plenty of time for the positions to change.  The exclusion at the end of the season of those batsmen and bowlers with insufficient runs or wickets to qualify might change the rankings in interesting ways. Will Strauss play two more innings for us, for example?  His average of 15 off 8 innings was not anticipated well by anyone, machine or human.  With only 17 points (8%) separating James D from 7th place Ged, there’s plenty still to play for – bit like the CC First Division this year.

 

If anyone wants to see the spreadsheet model that includes all the predictions and the formulae for computing the winners, you are very welcome to do so.  Please e-mail Ged at gedladd@hotmail.co.uk and he’ll e-mail you the spreadsheet.

 

The next update will be the final results

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