2007 Players Prediction Comp. Starting Position

Your guess......

By Ged
May 2 2007

This year there are a record 15 punters playing for glory in the Middlesex 2007 prediction competition. Ged assesses the runners and riders. He also publishes some pre season rankings for the contestants based on the benchmarks.

This year there are a record 15 punters playing for glory in the Middlesex 2007 prediction competition . As last year, Ged will also track 3 computed entries by way of a benchmark. Ged assesses the runners and riders. He also publishes some pre season rankings for the contestants based on the benchmarks. Periodically during the season, Ged will report on how the contestants are doing so far.

The competition has now gone live. There are a record 15 punters playing for glory:

NAME

COMMENT

GED LADD

This contestant needs no introduction

GARETH BLAKE

A contributor and reporter for MTWD. He seems like a sensible chap and his predictions seem pretty sensible too (that’s code for “similar to Ged’s)

HIPPITY THE GREEN BUNNY

A voice of untrammelled optimism, Hippity’s entry seems to track last year’s Middlesex averages, but with a somewhat optimistic slant towards his heros

WARREN LADD

Warren is not related to my nom-de-plume (how could he be?); like many people he regularly reads but only occasionally contributes to the board. He is the reigning champeen, prepared to risk all to retain his crown.

COMEBACKGATT

A regular contributor and moderator on MTWD, although a relatively new kid on the block. (“Kid”, who am I kidding?)

HOWARD MOON

A regular and thoughtful contributor to the Board, many followers of MTWD will watch Howard Moon’s progress with interest

CHIANGMAI CHEERS

A regular reader and contributor from across the seas, this is Chiangmai’s first go at this game.

JANET DAVIS

Janet’s unfailing optimism charms some and irritates others. If Middlesex’s youngsters do consistently well this year, punters will need to watch out for Janet’s score, for sure.

EAMONN COFFEY

An entry from somewhat out of the blue, Eamonn (like so many MTWD people) is a regular reader but not contributor. Some interesting choices and a bit of a dark horse entry.

DINGY BAGS

An MTWD regular, his entry tracks 1^st class averages and Middlesex 2006 averages quite closely, although is at a surprisingly large variance with Ged.

PISTOL PETE

Pistol Pete has a great track record in MTWD quizzes, but so far ahs not proved as successful at prediction games. Always one to watch, though, is Pete.

CELTIC CRUSADER

A regular contributor to MTWD, one of several Irish runners in this race. His entry is quite closely related to Ged’s, but doesn’t track the averages as closely. One to watch.

DCM

The most extreme entry since Lord of the Chairs supplied several “numbers to the power of” for our bowling averages last year (and therefore got surprisingly close). DCM tracks his heros and zeros with more fervour even than Hippity. A likely wooden-spoonista even before we start.

DARREN GOSLING

Another dark horse candidate – Darren’s entry doesn’t really track any of the benchmarks, but that doesn’t make him wrong – merely different.

BARMY KEV

In what is becoming a great annual tradition, Kev’s was the last entry to arrive. Clearly Kev uses every piece of information to inform his punts, right up to the last minute. Equally clearly, based on past performance, this approach doesn’t help all that much.

There are also three computed entries, by way of benchmarks:

NAME

COMMENT

1^stCLASS AVERAGE

Based on the players’ lifetime 1^st class averages. Players that don’t yet have sufficient 1^st class experience have standardised predictions: batsman 40/60, all-rounder 30/30, bowler 10/25.

MIDDLESEX 2006

Based on the players’ average in the 2006 season for Middlesex. Those who did not play for Middlesex 2006 have standardised

predictions: batsman 40/60, all-rounder 30/30, bowler 10/25.

POLL OF POLLS

The twelve real entries are averaged into a “poll of polls” to see if the combined brains of the contestants do better, worse or about the same as the individual contestants

Ged took a more optimistic line for bowlers and more pessimistic line for batsmen in 2007 than he did in 2006; many contestants (perhaps armed with Ged’s entry for guidance) followed that lead. Gareth Blake’s entry tracked Ged’s entry more closely than anyone else’s. If the average of our punts (“Poll of Polls”) is right, only Vaas (25) and Silverwood (29) will have a sub 30 bowling average, with Kartik showing 30, while Richardson and Johnson show 32. For the batsmen, Joyce would top average with 52, Shah 49, Strauss 47, Compo 45, Rymps 44 (bolstered by DCM’s big number) and Smith 43.

Barmy Kev’s entry tracked the players first class averages and 2006 averages more closely than anyone elses. Ged Ladd’s is closest to the “Poll of Polls”, which indicates that many people pick their numbers framed around Ged’s published entry. Celtic Crusader is second closest to the “Poll of Polls”, while Gareth Blake is the next closest to Ged’s.

The spreadsheet and preseason rankings are published at the Googledocs link below, if you want a butchers at the numbers. A copy of Ged’s predictions is currently sitting in the “2007 actuals” columns, which is why Ged looks like an out-and-out winner for now.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pwWi9CpG2dshpEJeU3buOZQ&gid=0

If anyone wants to see the full spreadsheet model that includes all the predictions and the formulae for computing the winners, you are very welcome to do so. Please e-mail Ged at gedladd@hotmail.co.uk and he’ll e-mail you a copy of the spreadsheet.

Ged will periodically publish some current standings on the contestants and benchmarks. For those who like this sort of thing, it should be a bit of fun. And for those who don’t like this sort of thing – you don’t have to watch.

Good luck everyone.

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NAME	COMMENT
GED LADD	This contestant needs no introduction
GARETH BLAKE	A contributor and reporter for MTWD. He seems like a sensible chap and his predictions seem pretty sensible too (that’s code for “similar to Ged’s)
HIPPITY THE GREEN BUNNY	A voice of untrammelled optimism, Hippity’s entry seems to track last year’s Middlesex averages, but with a somewhat optimistic slant towards his heros
WARREN LADD	Warren is not related to my nom-de-plume (how could he be?); like many people he regularly reads but only occasionally contributes to the board. He is the reigning champeen, prepared to risk all to retain his crown.
COMEBACKGATT	A regular contributor and moderator on MTWD, although a relatively new kid on the block. (“Kid”, who am I kidding?)
HOWARD MOON	A regular and thoughtful contributor to the Board, many followers of MTWD will watch Howard Moon’s progress with interest
CHIANGMAI CHEERS	A regular reader and contributor from across the seas, this is Chiangmai’s first go at this game.
JANET DAVIS	Janet’s unfailing optimism charms some and irritates others. If Middlesex’s youngsters do consistently well this year, punters will need to watch out for Janet’s score, for sure.
EAMONN COFFEY	An entry from somewhat out of the blue, Eamonn (like so many MTWD people) is a regular reader but not contributor. Some interesting choices and a bit of a dark horse entry.
DINGY BAGS	An MTWD regular, his entry tracks 1^st class averages and Middlesex 2006 averages quite closely, although is at a surprisingly large variance with Ged.
PISTOL PETE	Pistol Pete has a great track record in MTWD quizzes, but so far ahs not proved as successful at prediction games. Always one to watch, though, is Pete.
CELTIC CRUSADER	A regular contributor to MTWD, one of several Irish runners in this race. His entry is quite closely related to Ged’s, but doesn’t track the averages as closely. One to watch.
DCM	The most extreme entry since Lord of the Chairs supplied several “numbers to the power of” for our bowling averages last year (and therefore got surprisingly close). DCM tracks his heros and zeros with more fervour even than Hippity. A likely wooden-spoonista even before we start.
DARREN GOSLING	Another dark horse candidate – Darren’s entry doesn’t really track any of the benchmarks, but that doesn’t make him wrong – merely different.
BARMY KEV	In what is becoming a great annual tradition, Kev’s was the last entry to arrive. Clearly Kev uses every piece of information to inform his punts, right up to the last minute. Equally clearly, based on past performance, this approach doesn’t help all that much.